Analysis of the Impact of Foreign Interference in the Domestic Politics and Economy of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh, 2008 – 2019

Table of Contents


Introduction……………………….………………….……………………..…..2

Chapter 1: Literature Review……………….….…………………......7

1.1. An Overview…………..……………………….…………..………………….7

1.2. Theoretical and Conceptual views……………..……………………………...8

1.3. Empirical views…………………………………………………………..…...13

Chapter 2: Analysis of the impact of foreign interference in the domestics affairs of Bangladesh…… …………………….….……....19

2.1. Conceptual complexity…………...…………………………………………...19

2.2. Push - pull factors of foreign interference in Bangladesh affairs……………....20

2.3. Effects of foreign interference in the internal affairs of Bangladesh…………24

2.4. Foreign interference and democracy in Bangladesh…………………………..33

2.5. Foreign interference and polarization in Bangladesh………………….……....40

Chapter 3: Empirical analysis of the impact of foreign interference in Bangladesh affairs……………………..………….…………...…..….47

3.1. An overview…………………..……………………………………………....47

3.2. Survey results and interpretation…………………………………………….. 48

3.3. Expert depth-interview and questionnaires results………………..………….53

3.4. Statistical data, results and analysis……………………….………………….60

Conclusion ……………………..………………….……………...…...66

Bibliography…………….…………..………………………….......…68

Appendix 1………………………………………………….……..…..72

Appendix 2…………………………………………………………….72

1.1. An Overview

This section discusses the academic literature related to foreign interference. In reviewing the historical development of the foreign intervention and interference literature, the thesis is divided into two sections: a theoretical (and conceptual section) section and an empirical one. By separating the foreign interference literature in this way, the thesis seeks to separate theoretical from empirical foreign interference accounts.

A literature review, one the one hand, which focuses on conceptual and theoretical views entails an examination of foreign intervention and interference theories, concepts, and doctrines which someone can be classified as “general knowledge” of foreign intervention and interference. Such general knowledge will help to build a strong basis for “empirical knowledge” (empirical impact) of foreign interference in the internal affairs of Bangladesh.
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1.3. Empirical views

This part discusses the phenomenon of foreign interference in the affairs of Bangladesh which includes a number of reasons and trends of foreign interference. In addition, this section examines some distinct matters from the previous section because many scholars argued that foreign intervention can be permitted and conducted in the case of humanitarian crisis under the supervision of the United Nations. However, there is no kind of humanitarian crisis in Bangladesh which necessitates an international community to intervene or interfere. This research shows that Bangladesh’s geographic location and its geopolitical and geo-economic positions has been caused of foreign interference. This is because she is situated in the center of South Asia and East Asia.
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2.1. Conceptual complexity

Before discussing the effects of foreign interference in the internal affairs of Bangladesh, we need to address an important issue. There is an unclear understanding about foreign intervention and foreign interference. The past studies have a limited progress in differentiating between them; they have rather used the word “intervention” in the sense of “interference”, even sometimes, as synonyms. This research tries to provide more broad definitions and distinctions between them.
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2.3. Effects of foreign interference in the internal affairs of Bangladesh

Foreign interference is a real threat for national autonomy. It has become a bigger threat for national sovereignty and political concern in Bangladesh for more than a decade due to the effects of foreign interference in the domestic politics and economy. Foreign interference in Bangladesh means activities relating to
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Bangladesh that are carried out by or on behalf of, are directed or subsidized by or are undertaken in active collaboration with a foreign country and actors; carried out for the purpose of affecting and weakening political and governmental process and institutions; and made for the sake of its dependency on foreign sources. Figure 1 shows how national autonomy of Bangladesh is downgrading due a direct and an indirect control of foreign actors in the domestic affairs of Bangladesh.
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2.4. Foreign interference and democracy in Bangladesh

Foreign interference has a widespread impact on democracy across the globe and Bangladesh is not out of them. The effects of external interference in Bangladesh is much more severe than those of many developing countries. According to the Economist Intelligence Unit’s (EIU) Index of Democracy, Bangladesh ranked 75th in 2006 with a score of 6.11 that has been termed as “Flawed Democracy” and after that it has been regarded as “Hybrid Regime” (see in figure 2). But, according to the V - Dem democracy report 2019, Bangladesh has been regarded as “electoral autocracy” (page 35). Figure 1 shows the downgrading tendencies of democracy of Bangladesh based on various democracy indices, such as deliberative, electoral, liberal, participatory and egalitarian democracy index.
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2.5. Foreign interference and polarization in Bangladesh

Since the mid-twentieth century world has been noticing an increasing discussion about polarization (either ideological or political) among the experts. Polarization, especially political polarization, is increasing drastically around the world (see in figure 1).

Figure 1: Political polarization around the world between 1991 and 2019.

Source: V – Dem online graphing.

Political polarization in the Asian states are a growing phenomenon for more than a decade. Figure 2 shows the dramatic increase of political polarization between 2006 and 2019 in Asian countries. As an Asian country, Bangladesh is not out of an increasing trend of polarization. As Asian country, India and China is being
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polarized dramatically that is clearly obvious in the figure 2. As already discussed above that India and China are the highest interfering in the internal matters of Bangladesh.
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3.1. An overview

This section of the research is examining the perception of Bangladeshi top educated citizens - foreign relations experts, political scientists, journalists, lawyers - about foreign interference in the internal affairs of Bangladesh and its effects on
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democratic culture within the country. This section is divided into three parts: first, a massive survey- which includes all types of educated people who have university degrees and/or at least university students; second, expert depth- interview and written survey questionnaire for top Bangladeshi universities’ professors in international relations and political science departments; and third, statistical test - to prove the research hypotheses.

Expert depth-interview and written survey questionnaire for professors were very crucial for catching up the perception and understanding of foreign interference in the affairs of Bangladesh.
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3.2. Survey results and interpretation

For proving foreign interference in Bangladesh, a massive survey was conducted. The target respondents were university students, teachers, lawyers, journalists, human rights activists, and politicians and so on. The survey questionnaire were posted on Social Media (e.g., Facebook groups) of most universities, lawyer firms, human rights activist forums, journalist associations and so on. In addition, representatives were sent to some universities and organizations to inspire them to participate in the survey online. Duration of this survey was about four months.
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3.4. Statistical data, results and analysis

In order to estimate the effect of foreign interference in the domestic politics and economy of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh, this research uses time series and cross sectional data that allows to focus on the changes of variables over a period of time. All data were taken from the Economist Intelligence Unit’s (EIU) Index of Democracy ,2006 - 2019, and V - Dem Democracy datasets, 1991- 2019. To find the support for the hypotheses that foreign interference leads to mobilizing to autocracy through downgrading the overall political environment and causes of polarization, this thesis research uses ordinary least square (OLS) regression model to statistically prove the hypotheses.

This research uses democracy as a dependent variable.
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Conclusion

Bangladesh’s geo-strategic importance has made her a playground of the neighboring, regional and world powers. Recognizing its significance, foreign players have been overtly and covertly interfering in the internal matters of Bangladesh since its independence. But the degree of external interference in every affairs has increased from the beginning of 2008. Those foreign interference are the results of the push-pull factors. Bangladesh is always facing challenges from its poor political culture, rampant corruption, and weak governance system. Foreign actors always use this opportunity for their own interests. From its democratic practice in 1991 to 2006, Bangladesh enjoys a relatively sustainable democratic environment.
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