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Greece macroeconomic analysis
- 17 страниц
- 2020 год
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Фрагменты работ
Introduction 3
1. Gross Domestic Product Research 4
2. Study of inflationary processes and unemployment in Greece 7
3. Trade balance 9
4. Crisis phenomena in the Greek economy 10
5. Greece Economic Development Forecast 12
Conclusions 14
1. Gross Domestic Product Research
Gross domestic product (GDP) is the total monetary value of all finished goods and services produced during the year on the territory of the state by residents of a given country. GDP can be calculated in three ways, using expenditures, production, or incomes (Chappelow, 2019). In practice, this means that the GDP includes the results of activities of all enterprises, organizations, institutions and other units that operate in a given country, including enterprises fully controlled by foreign capital, as well as branches of foreign companies.
GDP is one of the key quantitative indicators of economic development used throughout the world for the most general description of the results of a country's economic activity over a given period (usually a year), the pace and level of economic development.
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2. Study of inflationary processes and unemployment in Greece
Inflation is one of the most vital and critical processes in the country's economy. It is determined by increasing the prices of goods and services, a decrease in purchasing power and the depreciation of the national currency. The main indicator of inflation is the Consumer Price Index (CPI). It shows how much the price of goods and services included in the consumer basket has changed relative to the previous period. As a rule, a change is published per month and year. The Core Consumer Price Index (Core CPI) is also used. This indicator shows how much the price of goods and services has changed, except food and energy sources, as they are subject to massive changes (seasonality, economic shocks, etc.). Another index that helps track inflation is the Producer price index (PPI). It describes the changes in prices at which manufacturers sell their goods at the wholesale level.
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3. Trade balance
The trade balance is a significant coefficient that characterizes the country's foreign trade relations. The components of the trade balance are the export and import of goods. The difference between the amounts of these components shows the competitiveness of the state in the field of trade. If exports prevail over imports, this indicates a strengthening of the national currency, and also positively characterizes the country's economy. If the cost of goods for imports is higher than the cost of export, this indicates the low competitiveness of the country. If the indicators match, a net balance is formed.
The ratio of exports to imports is presented in Figure 7.
Figure 7
Greece Export, Import and Trade Balance
Based: (Exports of goods and services (current US$) | Data, 2020) and (Imports of goods and services (current US$) | Data, 2020)
As can be seen in the graph, Greece's trade balance is negative, reaching its minimum value in the period of 2008.
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4. Crisis phenomena in the Greek economy
The World Recession is the crisis state of the world economy, which has been sharply marked since 2008. Different countries and regions emerged from the acute phase of the crisis at different times, from 2009 to 2013, and its consequences persist today. Greece was hit hardest by the economic crisis in Europe. At the end of 2009, a budget deficit of 12.7% of GDP was declared in Greece, and public debt exceeded 300 billion euros (115% of GDP) (The World Factbook, 2020). As a result, the Greek economy was on the verge of default, as it could not pay on previously taken loans. Fearing default, investors began selling Greek government bonds, which significantly complicated the refinancing of the public debt. At the end of 2009, Greece's GDP fell by 3.3% (ibid.).
It should also be noted the demographic crisis that began a little earlier, which is expressed in the constant decline in the population of Greece.
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5. Greece Economic Development Forecast
Using the Excel program and the trend line, the author made a forecast for three period’s ahead (fig. 9).
Figure 9
GDP Forecast
As it is seen, the nominal GDP continues to grow, while real GDP growth has slowed.
The global financial and economic crisis of 2007-2009 caused damage to the Greek economy due to which the GDP showed a drawdown of almost ten years. In 2008, it fell to –0.3%, already in 2011 to –9.1%, in 2016 a moderate recovery to –0.2%, and in 2017, the economic growth amounted to “unthinkable” 1.4%. At the same time, official unemployment increased from 7.8% in 2008 to 24.9% in 2015, and the proportion of the poor in Greece during the crisis increased by 7.5% to 35.6%. However, the obtained forecast data demonstrate that the Greek economy has embarked on a path of relatively sustainable growth.
Greece's national debt on December 31, 2018, amounted to 358.948 billion euros, compared with 328.
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1. Chappelow, J., 2019. Gross Domestic Product – GDP. [online] Investopedia. Available at: [Accessed 29 March 2020].
2. Cia.gov. 2020. The World Factbook. [online] Available at: [Accessed 29 March 2020].
3. Data.worldbank.org. 2020. Exports Of Goods And Services (Current US$) | Data. [online] Available at: [Accessed 29 March 2020].
4. Data.worldbank.org. 2020. Imports Of Goods And Services (Current US$) | Data. [online] Available at: [Accessed 29 March 2020].
5. European Commission. 2020. 2020 European Semester: Country Reports. [online] Available at: [Accessed 29 March 2020].
6. IMF Staff Country Reports, 2018. Greece: 2018 Article IV Consultation and Proposal for Post-Program Monitoring-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Greece. 18(248), p.1.
7. International Journal of Latest Trends in Engineering and Technology, 2017. Greece debt crisis. IRES(1).
8. Khan Academy. 2020. How Changes In The Cost Of Living Are Measured (Article) | Khan Academy. [online] Available at: [Accessed 29 March 2020].
9. Khan Academy. 2020. Lesson Summary: Real Vs. Nominal GDP (Article) | Khan Academy. [online] Available at: [Accessed 29 March 2020].
10. Rose, A. and Spiegel, M., 2010. CROSS-COUNTRY CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES OF THE 2008 CRISIS: INTERNATIONAL LINKAGES AND AMERICAN EXPOSURE. Pacific Economic Review, 15(3), pp.340-363.
11. Stats.oecd.org. 2020. LFS By Sex And Age - Indicators. [online] Available at: [Accessed 29 March 2020].
12. theOECD. 2020. Prices - Inflation (CPI) - OECD Data. [online] Available at: [Accessed 29 March 2020].
13. theOECD. 2020. Prices - Producer Price Indices (PPI) - OECD Data. [online] Available at: [Accessed 29 March 2020].
14. Tradingeconomics.com. 2019. Greece GDP Per Capita | 1960-2018 Data | 2019-2020 Forecast | Historical | Chart. [online] Available at: [Accessed 29 March 2020].
15. Worldometers.info. 2020. Greece GDP - Worldometer. [online] Available at: [Accessed 29 March 2020].
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