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The Struggle Over Ukraine's Future: The Question of Integration Between Russian Federation and the European Union
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The Struggle over Ukraine's Future: The Question of Integration with Russian Federation and the European Union
20/04/2012
Introduction
After the Soviet Union collapsed, many post-Communist states in Eastern Europe faced major political and economic issues due to government transition leading to corruption and underdevelopment in the 1990s. Russia's strong influence and its economic interests in the region made it possible for Ukraine to maintain Russia as an ideological, political, and economic partner. Ukraine's geostrategic location, natural resources, and gas transit pipeline not only made it an important partner for the EU, but also essential in establishing its political and economic influence in Ukraine.
The main focus of this discussion will be on addressing the roots and future of the relationship between Ukraine and Russia as well as the benefits for Ukrainian civil society if Ukraine were to join the EU community. This topic is significant because it explores the current political and economic strategies used by Russia and the EU as well as reactions from the Ukrainian community.
The objective of this essay is to examine and analyze certain actors and their interest in pushing their agendas which provide an adverse effect on the political and economic future of Ukraine. Specifically, the focus will be on assessing the role of two actors, such as the European Union and the Russian Federation, in analyzing the course of influence of both sides on the future of Ukraine. It is important to address why this topic is significant and what the larger implications in exploring this issue are.
I will be looking at specific events, actors, and perpetrators of certain agendas which have implications for the question of integration between the EU and Russia. I chose to focus on analyzing two recent case studies which have already made an important impact on Ukraine's
internal and external politics. One of the case studies is the Politics of Energy in the Russian-Ukrainian Gas Crisis of 2005-2010, and the other one is the Politics of Mega-sporting Events in the case of EURO 2012. After a thorough analysis of these two topics in relation to Ukraine's political realm, I will shed light on a bigger issue in Ukrainian society. Specifically, I will investigate the question of Ukrainian national identity from the perspective of the socially constructed idea of community. Each case study has a unique connection with defining an appropriate meaning and definition of Ukrainian identity. The case of the Russian-Ukrainian Gas Crisis 2005-2010 enables us to understand the ideological and political ties between Russia and Ukraine which historically have been both close and tense at different times. On the other hand, the case of Euro 2012 presents a challenge ahead for Ukrainian society as the meaning of European identity and democratization has not successfully been formed among the Ukrainian population. Therefore, I believe that this topic is unique in a way that both case studies will challenge the view and perception of Ukrainian identity for an outsider as well as for those who identify themselves as Ukrainians.
The central question of my thesis is: at the crossroad between the European Union and Russian Federation, should Ukraine become politically affiliated with either side in the future or continue to have bilateral relations?
While the European Union and Russian Federation push their agendas in influencing the political, economic, and social systems in Ukraine, investigating the question of Ukrainian national identity provides an important ground for reasoning and deciding the course for the future of Ukrainian society.
Politics of Energy and Russian-Ukrainian Gas Crisis of 2005-2010
The first case study which I will explore is the Politics of Energy and Russian-Ukrainian Gas Crisis 2005-2010. The main focus of this study will be exploring energy interdependence in European region, energy security issues pertaining specifically to Russian-Ukrainian Gas Crisis, and future plans of supply and demand of gas resources in Europe. Before I start investigating this issue in detail, I would like to stress on the importance of energy interdependence in the European region as well as providing background and position of the actors involved.
It is estimated that as a source of reliable energy, natural gas will constitute nearly 22-29% of all world energy supplies in 2030. In Europe it expected that natural gas will become the second most important source of energy after oil in the next 20 years, due to increasing demand of gas power plants and Europe's inability to rely on other sources of energy in the near future. Russia holds the biggest supply of natural gas which accounts for nearly 25% of world's gas reserves. Russia is also a major supplier of gas to European nations which accounts for 35% of gas imported to Europe. However, Europe is also Russia's biggest energy trading partner accounting for nearly 90% of Russian gas exports. Such interdependence poses a great concern on energy reliability and the need of finding sources of other energy suppliers for Europe as well as alternative gas export destinations for Russia. The diagram below shows how dependent European nations are on Russian Gas.
Dependency on Russian Natural Gas
This diagram shows that at least 12 European countries heavily rely on Russian gas exports. Also since 1965 only 9% of energy came from natural gas, and as of 2007 this number increased to 35%. It is evident that until alternative energy sources become more available to European nations, Russia will continue to be the major energy supplier to the European Union. Furthermore, if the demand for gas will keep on growing at this rate in Europe, it is expected that Russian gas will account for nearly 50% of Europe's gas demand by 2020. It is evident that such measures will bring even more dependence on energy supply in European states.
Another significant issue pertaining to energy security in Europe is known as Russian-Ukrainian Gas Crisis 2005-2010.The Russian-Ukrainian gas dispute had a great impact on many European states which were cut off with gas supplies leading to major gas disruptions across the region. The significance of this issue also lies in the lack of transparency, negotiations, and the effect of energy supply interdependence. Focusing on the historical context and politics of energy supplies between Russian and Ukraine will provide more insight on the matter. Russia’s major gas company which is the largest natural gas extractor in the world called Gazprom was at the center stage in this issue. Gazprom is largely controlled by the Russian government which
holds 50,01% of its shares in the corporation. Throughout 1990s, Russian and Ukrainian officials negotiated a deal in which Russia would supply European states through pipelines situated in Ukraine. Since the year of 2004, Ukraine was the major gas supplier and transit point for Russia's gas exports. Nearly 80% of Russian gas exports to the European Union were going through Ukraine. Also most of Gazprom's revenue was coming from the sale of gas that crossed Ukraine. Such interdependence in energy supply and transit posed even greater consequences. The gas dispute between Russia and Ukraine has been going on for over a decade, but it intensified in the past few years starting in 2005. For a long time both sides could not agree on gas and transit prices since Russian pipelines were placed on Ukrainian territories to access European markets. Russian officials accused Ukraine in unpaid gas and even diverting gas from the pipelines for its own export and domestic use. It is evident that Russia had a monopoly in controlling gas supplies in the region which enabled them to manipulate gas prices and put political pressure on gas dependent states in the European Union and former Soviet Union states. However, interests of the Russian side in this dispute were more economic in nature than political. During the conflict in 2006, which was part of the overall price reform in the relations of Gazprom with former Soviet states, Russia has sought to gain control of Ukraine's major gas transit company. These attempts had economic basis because Russia had interest in strengthening confidence in the uninterrupted supply of gas to European consumers, who still remained the main source of revenue for the Russian gas monopoly.
Тема диплома: "Борьба за будущее Украины: Вопрос интеграции с Российской Федерацией и Европейским Союзом". Диплом описывет события, которые сыграли роль в формировании протестов и революции в Украине по состоянию на декабрь 2013 года и далее. В дипломе описаны два тематических исследования, таких как российско-украинской газовой кризис 2005-2010 и Евро-2012, а также анализ обоих тем и определение того, как Россия и ЕС влияют на политические, экономические и социальные сферы в Украине. Ответ заключается в ответе на вопрос про Украинскую национальной идентичность. Что это значит быть Украинцем? Диплом написан на английском языке так как я сдавал его в Американском университете, University of New England, Biddeford, ME. Это было в мае 2012 года и я получил за диплом оценку A. В скором времени будет версия на русском языке.
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