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The impact of oil price on Kazakh economy and exchange rate of national currency
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The title of my final project is “The impact of oil price on Kazakh economy and exchange rate of national currency”
I chose this topic because Kazakh economy is slowing down from the beginning of 2015 and I want to understand the main causes of such phenomena. Exports in Kazakhstan decreased to 4808 USD Million in January of 2015 from 5206.80 USD Million in December of 2014. Exports in Kazakhstan averaged 3406.65 USD Million from 1998 until 2015, reaching an all time high of 9788.50 USD Million in June of 2011 and a record low of 286.50 USD Million in January of 1999. Exports in Kazakhstan is reported by the Agency of Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan.
There are assumptions that if oil continues to fall in price, the Parliament and the Government of Kazakhstan will soon urgently need to sequester adopted November 25, 2014 the state budget for the period from 2015 to 2017. According to official figures, the current Republican budget is formed at the target price for Brent crude to 80 in 2015 and 90 in 2016-2019, respectively. The oil and gas sector provides 22% of the country’s GDP and up to 70% of all revenues to the state budget and 99% of the National Fund. This Fund was specially created 15 years ago in order to overcome the crisis in the socio-economic development of Kazakhstan.
Recently, I noticed that prices on goods and services are growing up in Kazakhstan and I decided to understand the reasons of it. Also, Kazakhstan cut budget to many programs and events that are going to happen. For example, EXPO 2017 is going to be in Astana, Kazakhstan and in March 2015 the Kazakhstan Government reduced by 10 billion tenge (national currency). The country is searching ways where they can save money.
The second thing I want to outline in my final project is how the on-going standoff between Russia and the West will influence on Kazakh oil price.The bulk of Kazakh oil, which is exported, it passes through the territory of Russia, on Russian pipelines and Russian ports. Thus, the economic situation in Russia and its relations with Western countries can directly affect Kazakh economy.
The Title 3
The research question 4
Hypothesis 4
A research methodology 5
Conslusion 5
Reasons for the oil price drop in 2014 6
Economic and financial consequences of oil price drops 10
The impact of oil price on Kazakh national currency tenge and the economy of the country 16
The effect of Russian sanctions on Kazakh economy 18
The current state of Kazakh economy and its perspectives 20
Summary 23
List of references 24
In conclusion it is worth mentioning that the economy of Kazakhstan has suffered a lot due to fluctuations in oil prices and because of the Western sanctions against Russia. There has been national currency devaluation already, so the oil price drops only made the whole situation worse. However, one had better admit the stability of Kazakh economy and its proper precaution. Apart from the National Fund, Kazakhstan had quite a substantial amount of foreign currency reserves, which more or less helped the country overcome the hard economic times.
Regarding the sanctions, at first Kazakh economy suffered some losses, as, for example the GDP percent. However, the government did not allow the crisis spread down to the working society and other citizens of the country. Instead, it found ways for development. Using the sanctions this time Kazakhstan spent the time on development of other branches of industry, and not only oil production. In comparison to Russia it spends more money on economic and social needs of the state than on the military forces, as it has no interests in geopolitical sphere.
Last but not least, the Kazakh economy stays relatively stable and the country presents itself as a reliable business and trading partner on the world market. In case it continues to do so, less fluctuations in GDP will occur and the whole level and status of the region will develop.
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2. Badel, A. and J. McGillicuddy. 2015. "Oil Prices: Is Supply or Demand behind the Slump?" On the Economy, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
3. Baffes, John The Great Plunge in Oil Prices: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses/ John Baffes, M. Ayhan Kose, Franziska Ohnsorge, Marc Stocker/ Development Economics World Bank Group, March 2015.
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5. Baumeister, C. and L. Kilian. 2015. “Understanding the Decline in the Price of Oil since June 2014.” CFS Working Paper No. 501.
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7. Bocca, Roberto Three Reasons for the Oil Price Drop/ Roberto Bocca// https://agenda.weforum.org/2015/02/three-reasons-for-the-oil-price-drop/ view date – 23.05.2015
8. Coppola, Frances "Oil, Sanctions And Russian Politics"/ Frances Coppola// Forbes/ http://www.forbes.com/sites/francescoppola/2014/12/01/oil-sanctions-and-russian-politics/ view date – 23.05.2015
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10. European Commission. 2015. “Winter Economic Forecast: outlook improved but risks remain”, January 2015.
11. Gordeyeva, Mariya INTERVIEW-UPDATE 1-Kazakh central bank sees growth, stable currency at current oil price//REUTERS - http://in.reuters.com/article/2015/05/22/kazakhstan-gdp-idINL5N0YD2FY20150522 - view date 23.05.2015
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15. Lorenzetti, Laura What’s behind the drop in oil prices? / Laura Lorenzetti// http://fortune.com/2014/10/15/whats-behind-the-drop-in-oil-prices-heres-what-analysts-have-to-say/ view date – 21. 05.2015
16. Mooney, Chris A simple guide to a sudden collapse in oil prices / Chris Mooney// http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/11/28/a-simple-guide-to-the-sudden-collapse-in-oil-prices/ view date – 23.05.2015
17. Mooney, Chris The basic reason oil keeps getting cheaper and cheaper/ Chris Mooney//The Washington Post/ http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/12/12/the-basic-reason-oil-keeps-getting-cheaper-and-cheaper/ view date 20.05.2015
18. OECD, 2014. Economic Outlook, Volume 2014 Issue 2, No. 96
19. Pedersen, Chris 5 Reasons Oil Prices are Dropping/ Chris Pedersen// http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/5-Reasons-Oil-Prices-Are-Dropping.html/ view date – 20.05.2015
20. Ryzhkov, Vladimir Kazakhstan benefits from Russia’s misfortune/ The Moscow Times - http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinion/article/kazakhstan-benefits-from-russia-s-misfortune/511291.html - view date 23.05.2015
21. Schoen, John "Ticking time bombs: Where oil's fall is dangerous"/ John Schoen// CNBC/ http://www.cnbc.com/id/102270286#/ view date – 23.05.2015
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